Match detail
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur
Premier League · 35
Match summary
vs
Premier League · 35
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Villa Park · Birmingham
Referee
—
Live score
1-2
Top event
Asian Handicap: Aston Villa -0.25
Probability
60%
Price
1.97
Initial publish
May 3, 2026, 8:16 AM GMT+2
Kickoff
May 3, 2026, 8:00 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 3, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-2
What shaped the view
- + Villa should have the stronger home platform, but Tottenham can still create transition risk if the game opens up.
- + Official XIs soften the original Villa lean: Watkins, Bailey, Douglas Luiz, Konsa and Pau are on the bench, while Spurs get Udogie in and start a Palhinha-Bentancur-Gallagher structure despite still missing key pieces like Vicario and Romero.
- + Aston Villa -0.25 at 1.82 is cleaner than the 2.75 goals line, which is pulled both ways by Spurs’ attacking absences and defensive/GK losses.
Official lineups
Tottenham Hotspur
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #31 · Antonín Kinský · GOALKEEPER
- #23 · Pedro Porro · DEFENDER
- #4 · Kevin Danso · DEFENDER
- #37 · Micky van de Ven · DEFENDER
- #13 · Destiny Udogie · DEFENDER
- #6 · João Palhinha · MIDFIELDER
- #30 · Rodrigo Bentancur · MIDFIELDER
- #39 · Randal Kolo Muani · MIDFIELDER
- #22 · Conor Gallagher · MIDFIELDER
- #11 · Mathys Tel · MIDFIELDER
- #9 · Richarlison · ATTACKER
Bench
Radu Drăgușin, Yves Bissouma, James Maddison, Archie Gray, Lucas Bergvall, Djed Spence, Pape Matar Sarr, Souza
Aston Villa
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #23 · Emiliano Martínez · GOALKEEPER
- #2 · Matty Cash · DEFENDER
- #3 · Victor Lindelöf · DEFENDER
- #5 · Tyrone Mings · DEFENDER
- #22 · Ian Maatsen · DEFENDER
- #26 · Lamare Bogarde · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Youri Tielemans · MIDFIELDER
- #19 · Jadon Sancho · MIDFIELDER
- #6 · Ross Barkley · MIDFIELDER
- #27 · Morgan Rogers · MIDFIELDER
- #18 · Tammy Abraham · ATTACKER
Bench
Ezri Konsa, Emiliano Buendía, Ollie Watkins, Lucas Digne, Pau Torres, Andrés García, Douglas Luiz, Leon Bailey
Injuries
- Aston Villa · Boubacar Kamara · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Aston Villa · Alysson · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Tottenham Hotspur · Wilson Odobert · Cruciate Ligament Tear · CRUCIATE_LIGAMENT_TEAR
- Tottenham Hotspur · Xavi Simons · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Tottenham Hotspur · Dominic Solanke · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Tottenham Hotspur · Dejan Kulusevski · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Tottenham Hotspur · Ben Davies · Ankle Injury · ANKLE_INJURY
- Tottenham Hotspur · Mohammed Kudus · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Tottenham Hotspur · Cristian Romero · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Tottenham Hotspur · Guglielmo Vicario · Groin Injury · GROIN_INJURY
Why it made the board
Villa -0.25 is the most sellable angle: the handicap only asks Villa to be marginally better at home, and Tottenham’s injury list hits too many areas to trust them away. The goals line is less clean because Spurs’ absences weaken both their scoring threat and their defensive stability.
Main risk
Odds Trap: Odds-trap risk: the market is still only Villa -0.25 despite Tottenham’s injury list. Tactical counter is Spurs finding transition moments, especially with Kamara absent for Villa.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
May 3, 2026, 8:16 AM GMT+2
Revision time
May 3, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Score
1-2