Match detail

Argentina vs Cabo Verde

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Match summary

Argentina

Cabo Verde

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice2.00

Asian Handicap: Argentina -2.25

Probability

52%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jul 3, 2026, 10:45 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jul 4, 2026, 12:00 AM GMT+2

Last update

Jul 4, 2026, 2:16 AM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

First-half reference lines Home -1 and Over 1.25 signal expected early Argentina pressure, but knockout caution before the first goal raises deadlock risk. If Argentina score first, Cabo Verde must chase elimination rather than protect group position, increasing late extension risk.
Argentina's 4-4-2 has strong central control through De Paul, Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez and Almada, with Messi and Lautaro Martinez supported by late attacking depth from Julian Alvarez, Nicolas Gonzalez and Nico Paz. Cabo Verde's 4-1-4-1 gives them an initial block and outlets through Ryan Mendes, Jovane Cabral and Nuno Da Costa, but the chase script is fragile once they concede.
Round of 32 regulation-time market only: Argentina can be a strong advancement lean without this handicap being safe. Home -2.25 needs a 3+ goal win for full profit, with a 2-goal win producing a half loss. The closest rejected family was Goals Over/Under, especially Over 3, but it depends more on a fourth total goal or Cabo Verde contribution; the cleaner angle is Argentina's margin pressure if Cabo Verde are forced out of their 4-1-4-1.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Pick is thin in an efficient market, but the side-family option remains strongest. Argentina have multiple margin-building paths: sustained midfield service into Messi/Lautaro, fullback width, second-wave runners, and a stronger attacking bench for the final 30 minutes. Away +2.25 was rejected because Cabo Verde's cover path relies heavily on staying compact; if they fall behind, their 4-1-4-1 has to open and Argentina's bench can attack the spaces. BTTS Yes was also weaker because Cabo Verde's high-quality-shot path is not stable enough from the supplied lineup.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Main risk is knockout game management: Argentina may prioritize advancement after a 1-0 or 2-0 lead, and -2.25 still loses half on exactly a 2-goal win.

Update timeline