USA vs Australia

Current version

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• USA already have 3 pts and +3 GD, but a second win would virtually secure progression and goal difference can still matter for group rank; Australia’s conservative shape can slow the first half, yet chasing after conceding would expose the back five late.
• USA start a balanced but high-upside 4-2-3-1 with Robinson/Dest width, McKennie/Tillman support and Balogun/Pepi goal threat; Australia’s 5-4-1 protects the box but also starts with limited forward presence and Ryan/Irvine/Hrustic/Irankunda held on the bench.
• Home -1 at 2.00 is preferred over Away +1 at 1.80 because the push protects a narrow USA win, while Australia +1 needs either a draw/away win or exactly a one-goal USA win for only a push; the lineup gap and USA’s bench give the favorite better late margin upside.